USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2307-1.2377     

USDCAD soared on a worse than expected GDP report. StatsCanada reported that real GDP edged down 0.1% in April, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. And just to make matters worse, two more monthly declines and Canada will be in a recession. USDCAD may have additional upside on reports of small demand for dollars for the month end fix.

It will soon be official-Greece will stiff the IMF for a €1.9 billion payment due today although proposals and counter-proposals are flying fast and furious between Brussels and Athens. It ain’t over until the fat lady sings although is sure looks like she is waddling toward the microphone. Furthermore, missing the payment isn’t a big deal, yet, as the Greek PM appears to have successfully wrangled an “unofficial” extension through his referendum ploy. The evidence is in EURUSD. It has rallied from 1.0965 in early Asia yesterday to a peak of 1.1270 today in part because referendum polls show Greeks want to keep the Euro. It has since drifted lower.

Greece isn’t the only nation facing a deadline. The Iran /US led coalition nuclear talks are scheduled to end today which could mean the lifting of sanctions against Iran. That deadline will be extended, frustrating oil bears.

In Asia, Kiwi took it on the beak when the ANZ Business Confidence Index shrank to negative 2.3%,

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.2340 looking for a break of 1.2460 to extend gains to 1.2560 and then 1.2820. Intraday a retreat below 1.2410 lead to a 1.2360 which if broken would imply additional 1.2240-1.2460 consolidation. For today, USD support is at 1.2410, 1.2360 and 1.2330. Resistance is at 1.2460 and 1.2490.

Today’s Range 1.2380-1.2460

Chart: USDCAD 4 hour with uptrend and resistance shown