USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2999-1.3080  

Thanksgiving Day Range 1.2903-1.3009

Worse-than –expected Chinese Trade Data led by a 17.7% drop in Imports for September spooked a jittery FX market and commodity currencies got whacked. In Europe, news of the successful AB Inbev takeover of SAB Miller boosted GBPUSD. The move didn’t last and by the time the lower than forecast CPI data was released GBPUSD was well off its highs.  Early EURUSD gains were pare back on disappointing German ZEW data.

While many Canadians were stuffing themselves with turkey, yesterday, a plunge in WTI prices stuffed both oil and Canadian dollar bulls. Friday’s promising Canadian dollar rally has stalled out and a lack of domestic data in the final week before the federal election will leave USDCAD vulnerable to oil price movements and general US dollar sentiment.

USDCAD climbed steadily since New York walked in tracking WTI drip for drip. After hitting a ceiling in the $50.50-$51.00/barrel area on Friday, WTI has leaked lower, undermined by reports of record oil production by Opec.

Yesterday, Fed speakers, Lockhart and Evans confirmed that the FOMC has no clue when it will raise rates.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish. Last week’s very promising Canadian dollar rally on the back of the break of strong resistance in the 1.2950-1.3000 area doesn’t look promising any more.  In fact, it looks like the start of a new USDCAD uptrend. USDCAD failed to extend losses below 1.2900 and the subsequent bounce is now testing resistance at 1.3060.  A break of this level will target further gains to 1.3140 which if broken would suggest a short term bottom is in place at 1.2900.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3030, 1.3005 and 1.2980.  Resistance is at 1.3080 and 1.3120.

Today’s Range 1.3020-1.3090


Chart USDCAD 4 hour