USDCAD Overnight Range 1.4190-1.4276    

FX markets gave a sigh of relief overnight. China, the source of the market hurt for the past week, delivered a pain killer in the form of better-than expected Trade data. The December surplus was $60.09 billion (Forecast ($51.30 billion). Asia. It helped that the CNY fix was stable as well, up .0002 points to 6.5630.   Commodity currencies rose as did USDJPY.

The European session wasn’t nearly as enthusiastic.  After an initial decline in Asia, EURUSD traded sideways within a narrow range. The GBPUSD recovery from yesterday’s low stalled at 1.4470 ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England interest rate decision and policy statement.

USDCAD traded choppily with a bearish bias in Asia supported by both the China data and a rally in oil prices. However, the WTI rally stalled and USDCAD has bounced. At the moment, USDCAD (1.4235) is flirting with the intraday downtrend resistance line at 1.4240 which if broken puts 1.4300 back into play.

USDCAD trading remains at the mercy of oil price direction.  If sentiment shifts to the belief that WTI has found a short term bottom (at $30.00/b) and prices consolidate, it stands to reason that the stretched long USDCAD positions may get trimmed on any approach near 1.4300.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish while trading below 1.4240 but need to break below 1.4180 to extend losses to 1.4130 and even 1.4050. A break above yesterday’s high of 1.4316 keeps the focus on 1.4500. For today, USDCAD support is 1.4180, 1.4130 and 1.4050.  Resistance is at 1.4240 and 1.4300

Forecasted Range 1.4180-1.4280

Chart USDCAD 15 minute intraday chart

CAD 13TH JAN 2016