USDCAD Range 1.3092-1.3150  

USDCAD drifted higher throughout Asia and Europe in a rather slow start to the week. After approaching (but not touching) resistance in the 1.3160 area, USDCAD quickly turned tail and dropped back to intraday support at 1.3100. A weak US Empire State Manufacturing Index got credit for the move despite the fact it is third tier and a usually ignored piece of data.  That may be another indication of the skittishness of traders.

There wasn’t much in the way of data (other than Japan GDP) to inspire traders in Asia or Europe.   That is the case in North America as well, leaving traders to speculate on the health of the Chinese economy and whether or not Wednesday’s FOMC minutes will provide more rate hike timing clues than the FOMC statement provide.

The timing of the US rate hike and the direction of oil prices are the only things that matter for USDCAD this week. The range is your friend and there is nothing on the horizon, including the FOMC minutes, to suggest 1.2950-1.3200 will break this week.

Technical Outlook

The intraday technicals are bearish following the break of minor support at 1.3130 with a move below 1.3100 likely to extend losses to 1.3060. A rally back above 1.3140 puts 1.3180 in play.

Today’s Range 1.3030-1.3120

Chart: USDCAD daily with WTI overlay