USDCAD   Overnight Range 1.2976-1.3010      

USDCAD see-sawed around 1.3000 overnight and this morning.  The pside momentum has stalled, for the moment, although retreats are shallow and unconvincing. The underlying USDCAD sentiment is bullish on the back of a) slowing economy, b) soft oil prices and softer commodity prices, c) widening CAD/US interest rate differentials.  That won’t change in the short term.

The current USDCAD price action suggests that FX option barriers at various levels above 1.3020 are being defended.

FX markets languished within narrow trading bands in an unremarkable overnight session, totally devoid of the gut-churning volatility seen often, last week. The highlight of the Australian session was supposed to be the RBA minutes. They weren’t. Japanese traders returned from a long weekend to the Bank of Japan minutes and the Monthly Economic Report. Same thing as in Australia; no interest.

The European session wasn’t any better. EURUSD and GBPUSD bounced around without really going anywhere.  The lack of key US data today (and the rest of the week) suggests a similar session for North America traders is likely.

Technical Outlook

The USDCAD intraday technicals are unchanged from yesterday.  They are bullish within a narrow, rising 1.2970-1.3050 channel.  A move below 1.2970 targets 1.2910 while a break above 1.3050 opens the road to 1.3300. For today, USD support is at 1.2970 and 1.2940.  Resistance is at 1.3010 and 1.3030

Today’s Range 1.2960-1.3010

Chart: USDCAD hourly with rising channel

cad 21st July