September 24, 2020
- Risk aversion rises on lack of US stimulus, COVID-19 resurgence
- ECB notes uncertainty, IFO data notes improvement
- US Jobless claims rise
- US dollar opens higher, except vs JPY and GBP
Source: IFXA Ltd/RP
FX Ranges at a Glance US Jobless claims rose higher than expected, rising to 870,000 compared to forecast for an 830,000 increase. The previous week’s result was revised higher as well. The US dollar inched higher on the news, but stayed well within its overnight ranges.
Markets are rife with risk aversion. Asia equity markets tanked in sympathy with Wall Street losses. European bourses joined the sell-off party, but are off their worst levels as US equity futures flip to flat from negative territory.
President Trump musing that the US needs a full Supreme Court because that is where the US election results will end up didn’t help sentiment. Neither did Congress failing to pass a new stimulus bill. Norway’s Norges Bank and the Swiss National Bank left interest rates unchanged, and both noted downside risks to the post-pandemic recovery.
EURUSD continued to slide, dropping from 1.1679 to 1.1634. The ECB monthly bulletin was cautiously optimistic but warned the outlook was dependent on how the pandemic evolved.
The German IFO Index was a tad softer than expected. Business Climate, Current Assessment, and Expectations point to an improving German economy. The data did not have a lasting impact. Trump’s comments about a contested election the lack of new US stimulus and falling equity prices weighed on the single currency.
The EURUSD technicals are bearish below 1.1680, looking for further losses to the 1.1550 area.
GBPUSD rallied from 1.2692 to 1.278 but has eased to 1.2650 in NY trading. Prices were supported by the government’s plan to announce, “an extension of business loan schemes and a package of employment support to replace the government’s furlough scheme, which is due to end next month,” according to the Guardian. It was a case of “buy the rumour, sell the fact”, as GBPUSD dropped when Mr Sunak spoke. GBPUSD dipped to 1.2725 before inching back to 1.2750 in NY trading.
USDJPY rallied on the back of broad US dollar demand, climbing from 1054.22 to 105.47. Further gains may be limited on fears of a disputed US election.
AUDUSD continued to suffer from the double whammy of weak Retail Sales data yesterday and renewed speculation that the RBA would cut rates in October. Widespread US dollar demand didn’t help. NZDUSD continues to be pressured by expectations that the RBNZ will cut interest rates into negative territory.
USDCAD rode the US dollar rally bus. The reopening of Parliament and the Throne Speech did not have an impact on the currency.
However, once the fall economic and fiscal update is released, it may be a different story.
FX Recap and Outlook:
USDCAD Technicals: The intraday technicals are bullish . AC/DC would say USDCAD is on a Highway to Higher, fueled by the break of resistance in the 1.3250-60 area, and looking for a test of resistance at 1.3500 and higher . For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3330 and 1.3280. Resistance is at 1.3420 and 1.3450. Today’s Range 1.3330-1.3430
Chart: USDCAD 4 hour
Source: Saxo Bank
FX open (6:00 am EDT) High, Low, and previous close
Source: Saxo Bank