Monday, was a holiday in most parts of Canada.  You can be forgiven for looking at the FX ranges since Friday’s close and believing that the rest of the world was on a holiday as well.

USDCAD appears to be defying gravity.  It is trading near the high end of its recent range and it has a bid.  It traded at 1.2710 on Monday and only retreated to 1.2653 overnight even in the face of firm oil prices.

USDCAD may be struggling to regain downside momentum due to the sharp increase in speculative Long CAD/short US dollar positioning as reported by the Commitment of Traders report.  Speculators were adding to short USDCAD positioning last week, even as USDCAD rose.  Those positions are at levels not seen in 5 years.

Oil prices were very erratic since Monday’s low of $48.51.  since then, they rallied to $49.76 and then dropped down to $49.30.  A report that Saudi Arabia will cut September customer allocations by 520,000 barrels in September has underpinned prices.

Monday, two Fed speakers, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari spoke of their concern about low inflation which helped diminished any lingering positive effects from Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.  Their comments contributed to the soft dollar profile seen for the past two days.

In Asia on Monday, NZDUSD was under pressure after Q3 inflation expectations fell.  The RBNZ policy meeting on Thursday weighed on prices today.

AUDUSD rallied on Tuesday after upbeat Business Confidence and Business Conditions data, but stayed below Monday’s peak.

Sterling stayed on the defensive after the drop last Thursday from 1.3265.  It traded in a 1.3015-1.3055 range.

USDJPY traded sideways in a narrow range Monday and Tuesday.  If the chart was an emergency room heart monitor, nurses would have called the morgue.

EURUSD wasn’t much better but traded with a bid.  Germany’s trade surplus widened but exports declined.

USDCAD Technical outlook:

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while prices are above 1.2620 and looking for a break of 1.2705, the June downtrend line, to extend gains to 1.2770.  A move below 1.2620 will extend losses to 1.2520 and then 1.2450. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2620 and 1.2580.  Resistance is at 1.2700 and 1.2750.

Today’s Range 1.2630-90

Chart: USDCAD 1 hour

Monday, was a holiday in most parts of Canada.  You can be forgiven for looking at the FX ranges since Friday’s close and believing that the rest of the world was on a holiday as well.

USDCAD appears to be defying gravity.  It is trading near the high end of its recent range and it has a bid.  It traded at 1.2710 on Monday and only retreated to 1.2653 overnight even in the face of firm oil prices.

USDCAD may be struggling to regain downside momentum due to the sharp increase in speculative Long CAD/short US dollar positioning as reported by the Commitment of Traders report.  Speculators were adding to short USDCAD positioning last week, even as USDCAD rose.  Those positions are at levels not seen in 5 years.

Oil prices were very erratic since Monday’s low of $48.51.  since then, they rallied to $49.76 and then dropped down to $49.30.  A report that Saudi Arabia will cut September customer allocations by 520,000 barrels in September has underpinned prices.

Monday, two Fed speakers, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari spoke of their concern about low inflation which helped diminished any lingering positive effects from Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.  Their comments contributed to the soft dollar profile seen for the past two days.

In Asia on Monday, NZDUSD was under pressure after Q3 inflation expectations fell.  The RBNZ policy meeting on Thursday weighed on prices today.

AUDUSD rallied on Tuesday after upbeat Business Confidence and Business Conditions data, but stayed below Monday’s peak.

Sterling stayed on the defensive after the drop last Thursday from 1.3265.  It traded in a 1.3015-1.3055 range.

USDJPY traded sideways in a narrow range Monday and Tuesday.  If the chart was an emergency room heart monitor, nurses would have called the morgue.

EURUSD wasn’t much better but traded with a bid.  Germany’s trade surplus widened but exports declined.

USDCAD Technical outlook:

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while prices are above 1.2620 and looking for a break of 1.2705, the June downtrend line, to extend gains to 1.2770.  A move below 1.2620 will extend losses to 1.2520 and then 1.2450. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2620 and 1.2580.  Resistance is at 1.2700 and 1.2750.

Today’s Range 1.2630-90

Chart: USDCAD 1 hour