Overnight Range 1.3062-1.3096

The US dollar opened in New York modestly firmer from where it closed on Thursday following a mostly uneventful overnight session.

The New Zealand dollar came under pressure early, in Asia.  A weaker than expected Retail Sales report.. led to a shaloow drop in NZDUSD, from 0.7218 to 0.7187.

Across the Tasmanian Sea, AUDUSD drifted higher to peak at 0.7711. That move was erased in Europe when the US dollar caught a bid and the currency declined to 0.7658.

USDJPY inched higher throughout the Asia session, touching 113.49 before retracing all the gains (and then some) in Europe USDJPY opened in New York at 112.76, below where it closed last Friday.

Sterling is the big loser for the week and in overnight trading.

GBPUSD drifted aimlessly, with an upward bias in Asia and until a sharply weaker UK Retail Sales report took the legs out from under it. GBPUSD dropped from 1.2500 to 1.2390 where it opened in New York. The drop in Retail Sales is being spun as consumer reaction to Brexit. Probably not.

EURUSD traded sideways in Asia and drifted lower in Europe due to a bit of profit taking ahead of the US long weekend.  A dip in European equity markets may have encouraged some EURUSD selling.

Oil prices traded sideways in Asia and dropped in Asia.  WTI fell from $53.51 to $52.92/b. Traders remain torn between rising US crude inventories and Opec production cuts. Until prices break either side of $the 50.00/$55.00/barrel range, intraday moves are just noise.

The Canadian dollar was an afterthought.  USDCAD opened in New York at the same level it opened on Thursday, after drifting higher inside a narrow range. USDCAD moves continue to be dictated by general US dollar sentiment. A string of fairly good domestic economic reports has helped offset US dollar demand from rate hike expectations. Yesterday’s US dollar rally and reversal have left the existing ranges intact suggesting additional volatile range trading ahead.

The US dollar is heading into a long weekend (Presidents Day) a little worse for wear compared to where it closed last week. Euro, yen and the Swiss franc have eked out small gains while the commodity bloc currencies are modestly lower.  Sterling is the big loser but that is a different animal as Brexit issues are the main driver.

Canada is closed for Family Day on Monday and neither the US or Canada have any meaningful data releases on tap today.  That means a very quiet day in FX as traders will be looking ahead to an early exit.

Overnight Ranges

Open

17-Feb-17

 High

Low

USDCAD

1.3087

 1.3090

1.3062

EURUSD

1.0645

 1.0675

1.0638

USDJPY

112.85

 113.49

112.71

GBPUSD

1.2405

 1.2510

1.2390

USDCHF

0.9992

 0.9999

0.9971

AUDUSD

0.7663

 0.7711

0.7658

NZDUSD

0.7187

 0.7218

0.7187

USDMXN

    20.4593 20.4630 20.3841

WTI

53.00

 53.50

52.97
Close 4:00 pm EDT-Open 6:00 am EDT

 

USDCAD Technical outlook:

The USDCAD technicals are bearish as the series of lower highs from the January peak remain intact while prices are below 1.3120. That level could be tested as the intraday technicals are bullish while trading above 1.3070 representing the uptrend from Thursday’s low of 1.3008 remains intact.  A move below 1.3070 shifts the focus back to 1.3000.  A decisive break above 1.3120 would argue that a short-term low is in place and target 1.3210.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3070 and 1.3025.  Resistance is 1.3120 and 1.3180.

Today’s Range 1.3040-1.3120

Chart: USDCAD 30 minute

Source: Saxo Bank

MEXICO  

USDMXN drifted higher in line with the modest rebound in the US dollar vs. the majors.  The rally topped out near 20.44762 resistance an it has eased back.  A move below 20.3696 will extend losses to  20.2365 while a break above 20.4476 will lead to 20.5315.

Chart: USDMXN 30 minute

Source: Saxo Bank