April 22, 2019

USDCAD Open (6:00 am EDT) 1.3356-60:   Range (Thurs close-Monday Open) 1.3358-1.3394

Financial markets are open on Easter Monday, but not many. In Canada, most taxpayers are working, but not the taxpayer-funded public “service.” The UK, most of Europe, Australia and New Zealand closed for the day.

The US dollar opened in New York with small losses compared to Thursday’s close.  AUDUSD is the exception. It drifted lower ahead of Wednesday’s Aussie inflation report.  Weaker than expected data would raise the risk of a rate cut.  The rest of the majors are close to their Thursday closing levels after trading sideways in quiet markets.

USDCAD is opening at its low since Friday, undermined by another surge in West Texas oil prices.  WTI soared to $65.87/barrel from $63.50 on Thursday on reports that the US will end Iran oil waivers, meaning countries that import oil from Iran will face US penalties.  The American’s are expected to ask Saudi Arabia and Opec to end their production cap policy.

USDCAD dropped from 1.3389 on the news, but losses have been limited, in part due to expectations for another dovish Bank of Canada policy statement on Wednesday. 

The partial holiday in Canada and the lack of trading guidance from Europe suggests a tranquil FX session today.  There is not any Canadian data.  US data includes Chicago Fed Business Activity and March Existing Home Sales.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intreaday USDCAD technicals are bearish while prices are below 1.3370 looking and looking for a retest of support at 1.3305.  A break above 1.3370 targets 1.3400 and then 1.3440.  A move below 1.3305 will try to chew through support in the 1.3250-1.3290 area. 

Today’s Range 1.3310-1.3400

Chart: USDCAD  1 hour

Source: Saxo Bank