Photo: METV

July 22, 2020

USDCAD Open (6:00 am) 1.3452-1.3456, Overnight Range: 1.3421-1.3481

Twenty-four hour graph of major currency performance  vs the US dollar

Source: Saxo Bank/IFXA Ltd

FX Recap and outlook: Statistics Canada reported that June CPI rose 0.7%, the fastest year-over-year increase, since March 2011.

FX traders took their time before warming up to the news the EU agreed to a multi-year budget and the €750 billion COVID-19 Relief Fund.

But when they warmed up, they really started cooking.  EURUSD soared from 1.1424 to 1.1571 in NY trading today.

The EURUSD rally served to snap the downtrend from May 17, 2018, with a decisive break above 1.1505, targeting 1.2150,  The bearish sentiment is fueled by the belief that the Euro area has the coronavirus under control, while the US is behind the curve.  The EU action, which opened the door to EU back bonds, is seen as enhancing fiscal support to the Euro area.  Meanwhile, the US deficit is exploding with another $1.0 billion or so, in new funding announcements coming down the pipe.  The US ordered China to close its Houston Consulate office, further escalating US/China tensions and bolstering EURUSD as a safe-haven.

Chart: EURUSD daily noting break of downtrend

Source:  Saxo Bank

GBPUSD had a wild twenty-four hours.  It rose from a low of 1.2675 post-EU Summit news and rallied to 1.2765 in the NY afternoon.  Prices traded sideways in Asia but dropped when London opened, falling from 1.2725 to 1.2639 before bouncing to 1.2682 in NY.  Why all the excitement?  No reason.

GBPUSD is benefiting from bearish US dollar sentiment while ignoring yesterdays reports that the UK government is giving up on hopes for a Brexit deal before the end of the year.

USDJPY dropped from 107.30 after the EU to 106.67 then traded in a 106.67-106.88 range in Asia.  Soft US Treasury yields, and US coronavirus concerns are weighing on prices.

AUDUSD bounced like a kangaroo on steroids.  It has risen 2.8% since Monday on the back of bullish data, a tame central bank, and bearish US dollar sentiment.  A 2.4% rise in domestic retail sales underpinned the gains.

USDCAD is the laggard of the G-10 currency spectrum.  Even as the antipodean currencies soar, USDCAD cannot get much downside traction, in part because of expectations that Canada’s post-COVID-19 economic rebound will be uneven and shallower than that of its G-10 peers. 

USDCAD Technicals:   The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish while prices are below 1.3480, looking for a break below support at 1.3430 to extend losses to 1.3350.  A move above 1.3480 would target 1.3540.  A break of 1.3540 would suggest a short term bottom is in place at 1.3330 and suggest more 1.3330-1.3630 consolidation.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3430 and 1.3390.  Resistance is at 1.3480 and 1.3530.   Today’s Range 1.3410-1.3480

Chart: USDCAD daily

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Source:  Saxo Bank