October 7, 2020
- Focus shifts from US stimulus disappointment to FOMC minutes
- Trump puts stimulus ball into Democrat hands by offering $1,2000 cheques
- Powell repeats that” recovery is uncertain”
FX Ranges at a Glance
Source: IFXA Ltd/RP
FX Recap and Outlook: FX markets were choppy, and rangebound, with uncertain direction overnight, which will be the case today. Markets continue to have indigestion after Trump bailed on a new bipartisan stimulus deal. However, his follow-up tweet “If I am sent a Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks ($1,200), they will go out to our great people IMMEDIATELY. I am ready to sign right now. Are you listening Nancy?” gave markets hope for some sort of package.
Asia equity traders shrugged off Wall Street losses and closed flat to higher. European equity indexes are slightly negative, while Wall Street futures are in positive territory. Gold prices a tad higher from where they closed, while oil prices dipped.
The FOMC minutes are released this afternoon. They may be more interesting than usual as there were two dissenting votes, Robert Kaplan, and Neel Kashkari.
EURUSD is attempting to recoup yesterday’s losses after Trump tweeted that he was halting stimulus package talks. EURUSD bottomed-out at 1.1725 yesterday afternoon and rallied to 1.1766 in Europe. Prices continue to be supported by ECB President Christine Lagarde suggesting yesterday, that new ECB stimulus is likely. The 1.1600-1.1900 ranges since September 2 remains intact.
GBPUSD has not recovered from the Trump -tweet induced woes that knocked prices from 1.2928 to 1.2875 at the close. GBPUSD inched higher in Asia and in early European trading, then plunged to 1.2856 in NY. Prices are being whipped around by coronavirus, and Brexit headlines.
USDJPY rallied rising from 105.63 to 106.10 in NY trading. Prices are underpinned by former US Treasury yields, and ongoing unwinding of safe-haven trades established when Trump was hospitalized.
AUDUSD out-gained NZDUSD as both currency pairs rebounded, following Trump’s tweet about writing Corvid relief cheques.
USDCAD price action tracked EURUSD movements. Domestic issues, data, and oil prices have little impact on USDCAD direction. Canada Ivey PMI data is due today.
USDCAD Technicals: The intraday technicals are unchanged from yesterday and the 1.3240-1.3420 range is intact. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3260 and 1.3240. Resistance is at 1.3340 and 1.3390. Today’s Range 1.3260-1.3340
Chart: USDCAD 4 hour
Source: Saxo Bank
FX open (6:00 am EDT) High, Low, and previous close
Source: Saxo Bank