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March 15, 2021

USDCAD open (6:00 am ET) 1.2454-58,  Overnight Range 1.2443-1.2492,  Close 1.2477

FX Ranges at a Glance 

Source: IFXA Ltd/RP

FX Recap and Outlook:   FX and equity markets started the week cautiously.  In addition to top tier economic data in various regions, the Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan policy meetings are due.

Asia equity indexes closed with gains.  European bourses are in positive territory, and US equity futures suggest a positive open for Wall Street.

Coronavirus and vaccine issues are still major concerns in Europe.  AstraZeneca insists its vaccine is safe.  People suffering side effects beg to differ. Norway, Ireland, and Holland have suspended the use of the vaccine. 

China Retail Sales climbed 33.8% year over year.  ING analysts said the jump was mainly due to base effects from last years COVID-19 outbreak.

EURUSD traded with a negative bias and dropped from 1.1967 to 1.1919, mostly because of the steady to high US 10-year Treasury yield, which is at 1.618% this morning.  Prices are also suffering from what is being called a “Third COVID Wave “ as infection rates jump in German, France, Italy, and Poland. US economic outperformance thanks to the $1.9 trillion stimulus packager is another factor.  The intraday EURUSD technicals are bearish below 1.1970.

GBPUSD is steady in a 1.3897-1.3948 range.  BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said about the economy, ”I’m now more positive but with a large dose of caution.” He reminded markets that he was looking at “new tools”, including negative interest rates.  The BoE monetary policy meeting is Thursday which suggests GBPUSD will be rangebound until then. 

USDJPY climbed from 108.92 to 109.36 along with the rise in US Treasury yields but prices slipped to 1098.10 in NY.  The Bank of Japan meeting is Friday, and they are expected to unveil details of their monetary policy review.

AUDUSD  traded choppily in a 0.7722-0.7774 range and opened in NY in the middle. Prices were undermined by a steep fall in iron-ore prices, but garnered support from the China Retail Sales numbers, even though they were distorted by COVID.

USDCAD continued to suffer from Friday’s blow-out Canadian employment report and rising crude oil prices.  Arguably, the Canadian dollar is being bought as a proxy to the US as Canada will benefit from the US stimulus plan.

Canada Manufacturing Sales and Housing Starts are due.  Empire State Manufacturing Index is released in the US.

USDCAD Technicals:  The intraday technicals are bearish below 1.2510, looking for a break below 1.2420 to extend losses to 1.2360.  A break above 1.2510 targets 1.2550. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2440 and 1.2410.   Resistance is at 1.2490 and 1.2510. Todays Range 1.2410-1.2510

Chart: USDCAD hourly

Source:  Saxo Bank

FX open (6:00 am EDT) High, Low, and previous close