Overnight Range 1.2931-1.2974
NOTE: This chart represents gain (or loss) of G10 currencies vs. the US dollar from NY close-July 15 (4pm) to NY Open July18, 6:00 am EDT
USDCAD moved higher in early New York trading due to WTI oil prices drifting lower in an otherwise quiet market.
The week ended on a nasty note. A terrorist attack in France and a coup attempt in Turkey made for a cautious start to FX trading this week. It didn’t help that Japan was closed for a national holiday.
NZDUSD was fairly busy. It gapped lower on the release of CPI data, that although was unchanged from the previous release, was below forecasts, raising the risk for an OCR cut in August. USDJPY gaped lower at the Asia open on risk aversion demand which quickly dissipated and the currency pair traded within a narrow band for the rest of the day.
The European FX activity was just as subdued with light volumes reported. Bank of England MPC member Martin Weale downplayed the possibility of a rate cut and pooh-poohed the ideas that the BoE should avoid “disappointing” markets or the need to reassure people. GBPUSD edged lower.
North American FX markets are likely to follow the overnight lead which suggests that it may be a dull trading session today. The only data of note is only the US NAHB Housing market Index and that isn’t a game changer.
USDCAD technical outlook.
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish while trading below 1.2980, a downtrend line which is guarding a triple top on the hourly chart at 1.2990. A break below 1.2920 points to a retest of 1.2860. A move above 1.2990 would open the door to another test of the 1.3080-1.3130 resistance area. Longer term, USDCAD is just bouncing within the confines of the broad 1.2460-1.3200 trading band which has been intact since April.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2930, 1.2905 and 1.2860. Resistance is at 1.2970, 1.2990 and 1.3050
Today’s Range: 1.2905-1.2990
Chart: USDCAD I hour