USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2918-1.2995
NOTE: This chart represents gain (or loss) of G10 currencies vs. the US dollar from NY close (4pm) to 6:00 am PDT
The Canadian dollar has enjoyed a lively session since the start of New York trading. USDCAD opened around 1.2945. Traders sold it immediately but the decline was short-lived and the currency pair rebounded to 1.2960 ahead of the domestic economic data. Raw Materials Price Index and Industrial production data for May beat expectations as did GDP. However, the GDP data was prior to the Alberta fires and therefore ignored. If rumours of USDCAD demand for month end portfolio rebalancing purposes are true, USDCAD could jump back to the 1.3040 area.
Equity markets have survived the worst of the Brexit damage, GBPUSD is well off the post-Brexit low and oil prices appear oblivious of the market turmoil elsewhere. The US dollar has retreated against all the G10 currencies as the apocalyptic worries fade.
In Asia, US dollar buyers were evident but the move lacked conviction and European traders reversed it. EURUSD gained on slightly better than expected June CPI data for the Eurozone. (CPI Actual 0.1% vs. forecast 0.0% y/y). China vehemently denied a story that they were contemplating devaluing the yuan by 6.8%.
Global equities indices added to yesterday’s gains but not to the same degree. Still they are all in the green.
Oil prices were steady overnight but failed to revisit yesterday’s $50.00/b high. Instead they waffled around the $49.55/b area and have dropped below the overnight low of $49.03 and are at $48.84/b, as of 6:15 am PDT.
Boris Johnson, Champion of the Brexit Leave side was thought to be in the running to replace UK PM David Cameron. He’s not. He announced his decision not to run as New York was just starting their day. Bank of England governor Mark Carney is delivering a speech at 11:00 am EDT.
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish while the downtrend channel (1.2900-1.2980) remains intact. A break above 1.2980 will extend gains to 1.3050 which has proved to be fairly sticky. If it fails to hold USDCAD will retest 1.3100. A move below 1.2900 will extend losses to key support in the 1.2840-60 zone.
Today’s Range 1.2920-1.3020
Chart USDCAD 30 minute