USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2038-1.2102        

A healthy jobless claims report (Actual 265k vs. forecast  280k) has given the US dollar a bit of a bid against the majors as well as the Canadian dollar this morning.Yesterday’s high flying Loonie was like a migrating bird slamming into the window of a high rise office tower; it knocked itself for a loop. The Canadian dollar gains were driven by a soft US dollar, oil prices above $62.00/bbl and a jump in the Ivey PMI index. Today, no one cares about the Ivey result, oil is below $61.00/bbl and USDCAD is bid.

It was a less-than-exciting overnight session in FX markets, except for a brief bout of volatility in Australia. The Aussie employment data missed forecasts (Actual -2.9K vs forecast +5.0K) and AUDUSD dropped modestly.That move reversed itself quickly and AUDUSD rallied above where it sat, pre-data.  Election jitters and EURGBP demand drove GBPUSD lower in a subdued European session.

Friday’s twin employment releases may not bode well for the Canadian dollar. A weak Canadian number (which is expected) plus a strong NFP (also expected) in an oil market where rising prices defies ever increasing over-supply could drive USDCAD back to 1.2350 in a hurry.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday technicals are bullish with the break of the downtrend line at 1.2050 looking for a move above 1.2110 to extend gains to 1.2160. A move below 1.2030 would shift the focus back on support in the 1.1950-70 area. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2030 and 1.1990.  Resistance is at 1.2090, 1.2110 and 1.2160.

Today’s Range 1.2060-1.2110

Chart: USDCAD hourly with downtrend break

CAD 7 MAY 2015