USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2920-1.2978
FX traders in New York started their day unsure of the US dollar’s direction so it hasn’t gone anywhere. A top tier economic data void has encouraged the lack of movement.
USDCAD went for a “walk-about” overnight but opened in New York right where it closed. The Loonie is at a cross-road. A spate of weak data and the inability of WTI to sustain gains above $46.00 is powering US dollar bulls while the lack of downside in WTI prices combined with doveish FOMC expectations is keeping the bears happy. A lack of top tier data (until Retail Sales, Friday) suggests more range trading until then.
USDJPY continued to climb in Asia with new (but not fresh) comments by the Japanese Finance Minister threatening intervention. AUDUSD gained on improved equities.
In Europe, EURUSD remains sidelined, trading in a narrow band and mostly ignoring European industrial production data. Thankfully, for traders, GBPUSD was a tad lively. It was bid in the early European session but the rally stalled near yesterday’s high and it has since retreated. A British Chamber of Commerce poll had the exit camp gaining on the Stay camp.
WTI is trading at the low end of the recent range ($43.55/b) undermined by a report that Iran is undercutting Saudi and Iraqi prices to gain market share.
Global equity markets were mostly in the “green” overnight leading a modest “risk-on sentiment for G10 currencies. NY equity futures are also in the green suggesting minor upside for equities at the open. Equity moves will likely dictate currency moves during the New York session as well since there isn’t any data of note to influence direction. USDCAD will trade off of WTI price moves.
USDCAD technical outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.2920, the bottom of a rising channel, the top being 1.3080 today. A break above the 1.2970-80 area should extend gains to 1.3020 and then 1.3060. A move below 1.2920 will lead back to 1.2870 and then 1.2840. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2920 and 1.2870. Resistance is at 1.3020 and then 1.3050.
Today’s Range 1.2930-1.3030
Chart: USDCAD 30 minute
