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January 14, 2021

  • Biden to announce “trillions and trillions’ of stimulus spending
  • Fed Chair Powell leads parade of Fed speakers today
  • Initial Jobless Claims soar to 965,000

USDCAD open (6:00 am ET) 1.2671-75,  Overnight Range 1.2668-1.2706

FX Ranges at a Glance:

Source: IFXA Ltd/RP

FX Recap and Outlook:  US weekly jobless claims disappointed analysts who were expecting an insignificant increase to 795,000 for the week ending January 9.Instead, thenumber of new claims jumped 181,00 to 965,000.  The results were ignored

Traders are cautious ahead of remarks from a slew of Fed officials, including Eric Rosengren, Robert Kaplan, and Raphael Bostic.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell headlines the show with a speech at 10:30 am PT. 

FX markets are in the thrall of American politics and are directionally challenged.  President Trump is basking in the glow of being the only President to be impeached twice. 

Asia equity indexes closed with modest against, except the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 which lost 1.93%.  European equity indexes are modestly higher.  S&P 500 futures are a tad firmer.Oil and Gold prices are a touch lower.

The late Republican Senator Everett Dirksen (1896-1969) once said about government spending: “a billion here, a billion there, and soon you are talking about real money.” President-elect Joe Biden’s plans to announce a “real money” stimulus plan tonight.

The significant details of Mr Biden’s plans are known and are reflected in current price levels, which suggests, US dollar bears are vulnerable to “buy the news, sell the rumour” price action.

EURUSD traded with a negative bias overnight and pushed below support at 1.2140 which had curtailed losses since the middle of December.  A decisive break below 1.2120 opens the door to steeper losses to 1.2020.  The single currency may still be weighed down from yesterday’s comments by ECB officials, reminding markets that they “monitor the exchange rate.”  Traders ignored news that German  Real GDP growth fell 5%.

GBPUSD is tracking broad US dollar moves but remains locked in a 1.3600-1.3700 range.  Prices are supported by speculation of renewed investment flows following the Brexit trade deal.  Prices are capped by worries about the negative impact from the latest coronavirus containment measures.

USDJPY traded in a 103.80-104.18 range, with prices weighed down by domestic COVID-19 issues, and the retreat in US Treasury yields.

AUDUSD and NZDUSD rallied on the back of a robust China Trade report.   Exports rose by 18.1%.  Traders ignored rumours that China told Australia coal shippers to find markets elsewhere.

USDCAD traded with a negative bias on the back of AUDUSD and NZDUSD gains.  Prices also derived a bit of support from WTI oil prices, which climbed to $53.26/barrel. USDCAD direction is solely at the discretion of broad US dollar sentiment, and that sentiment is starting to turn bullish.

USDCAD Technicals:   The USDCAD technicals are in a well-established downtrend from November, while below 1.2820, looking for a break of support in the 1.2630 zone.  However, the intraday technicals have turned bullish with the move above 1.2680, looking for a break above 1.2700 to extend gains to 1.2770..  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2660 and 1.2630.  Resistance is at 1.2705 and 1.2740.  Today’s Range 1.2660-1.2740

Chart: USDCAD daily

  Source:  Saxo Bank

FX open (6:00 am EDT) High, Low, and previous close

Source:  Saxo Bank