Photo: Wikimedia

February 1, 2021

  • Silver hits $30-first time since 2013

USDCAD open (6:00 am ET) 1.2801-05,  Overnight Range 1.2764-1.2817,  Previous Close 1.2778

FX Ranges at a Glance:

Source: IFXA Ltd/RP

FX Recap and Outlook:   The US dollaris trading with a positive bias, and opened in NY with gains against the G-10 majors , except against GBP. However, the US Dollar Index (USDX) needs to break above resistance at 91.00 to suggest, the greenback’s rally will continue.

Asia equity indexes closed with solid gains.  The Hang Seng rose 2.15% and the Nikkei 225 gained 1.55%.  Germany’s DAX is leading European bourses higher, and  S&P 500 futures suggest Wall Street will open higher.   Gold and oil prices are also firmer.

Silver (XAGUSD) jumped over 10% today, with some suggesting the move is contagion from the GameStop, AMC insanity.  Perhaps, but as the UK Guardian notes, it doesn’t seem to be a WallStreetBets fueled move.  Another analyst noted that the market for silver is far deeper than the small stocks like GameStop, making it far more difficult to create an effective short squeeze.

Graph:  Business Insider

EURUSD traded steadily in Asia than sank in Europe, falling from 1.2141 to 1.2071.  Prices did not get any relief from a slight uptick in Eurozone Manufacturing PMI to 54.8 from 54.7 expected.  Eurozone unemployment was unchanged at 8.3%.  Italian politics may be weighing on prices as politicians struggle to form a new coalition. The EURUSD technicals are modestly bearish but require a decisive break below 1.2050,  targeting 1.2010.

GBPUSD  was the best performing currency overnight, and the only one to show a gain against the US dollar. The currency climbed from 1.3696 to 1.3757 in Europe, before retreating to 1.3710 in NY trading.  Prices are supported by the UK’s pace of COVID-19 vaccinations which is well-ahead of the US and Canada. UK January PMI finished at 54.1 compared to 52.9 previously, which provided a bit of support.  GBPUSD also got a bit of a lift from news that the UK will formally apply to join the Trans-Pacific trading bloc.

USDJPY rallied due to the improved risk tone, and higher 10-year US Treasury yields which managed to bounce back to 1.07% overnight.  The short term technicals are bullish with a break above 104.50 targeting 105.60.

AUDUSD and NZDUSD sank due to broad US dollar strength.  Losses were limited by the steady China Caixin PMI data, (51.5) which showed the economy was still growing.  The RBA meets tomorrow and is expected to offer an upbeat outlook which should give AUDUSD a boost.

USDCAD sank to 1.2771 in Asia then rallied to 1.2817 in Europe before easing to 1.2800 in NY trading.  Gains are capped by steady to firm oil prices, and by Friday’s GDP report showing the economy was stronger than expected.  The bearish EURUSD sentiment suggests USDCAD is a buy on dips.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at 77.7 compared to 76.7 previously.

USDCAD Technicals: The USDCAD technicals are bullish above 1.2760, looking for a break above 1.2820 to retest resistance at 1.2880.  A decisive break above the 1.2880-1.2905 area, will extend gains to 1.3000.   For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2760 and 1.2730.  Resistance is at 1.2840 and 1.2890  Today’s Range 1.2740-1.2840.

Chart: USDCAD 4 hour

Source:  Saxo Bank

FX open (6:00 am EDT) High, Low, and previous close

Source:  Saxo Bank