November 18, 2020
- Canada Oct CPI rises higher than forecast
- Sinking USDCNY halts US dollar rally
- US dollar opens with losses vs G-10 majors.
FX Ranges at a Glance
Source: IFXA Ltd/RP
FX Recap and Outlook: Statistics Canada reported October CPI rose 0.7% y/y, up from 0.5% in September. The gain was blamed on higher prices for food. USDCAD traders didn’t react to the news.
Traders also ignored US Housing Starts (actual 1.53 million vs forecast 1.46 million) and Building Permits which were 1.545 million.
Yesterday’s US dollar rally stalled in Asia but the subsequent see-off didn’t get any legs, either. FX traders are weighing short term concerns around the likely White House transition, and the impact of the second wave of the pandemic, against expectations that a COVID-19 vaccine will launch a massive, global economic rebound.
EURUSD traded sideways in a 1.1851-1.1890 range. Tomorrow’s EU meeting, and fears about negative headlines from their failure to pass the 2021/2027 budget, and concerns around a no-deal Brexit may cap gains. Eurozone inflation for October was 0.2%, as expected.
GBPUSD topped out at 1.3296, underpinned by a story in UK telegram that France may ease its stance on fishing rights. UK CPI, and PPI, were largely ignored as Brexit is the key factor in GBPUSD direction.
USDJPY traded lower, falling from 104.20 to 103.80, on the back of soft US Treasury yields and bearish technicals, looking for a break of support at 103.70 to extend losses to 102.80.
AUDUSD and NZDUSD rallied on the back of improved risk sentiment and the drop in USDCNY. The weakening Chinese currency is seen as a catalyst to boosting global trade and by default, an economic rebound. Traders are ignoring the dovish bias and risk of negative interest rates that both the RBA and RBNZ talked about earlier. In addition, AUDUSD is rallying even as China continues to ban Australian imports, as part of an ongoing political feud.
USDCAD dropped on the back of the widespread US dollar selling pressure, but it remains well entrenched inside its 1.3040-1.3150 trading band. The sentiment is mildly bearish for USDCAD, as hopes of a robust global economic rebound and a much weaker US dollar suggest further selling pressure. Canada’s post-COVID-19 financial position is the worst of the G10 nations, and oil is less important to Canada’s economy in 2021 than it was in a pre-Trudeau government, argues Canadian dollar gains will lag those of the other major currencies.
USDCAD Technicals: The intraday technicals are bearish below 1.3090, looking for a break below 1.3050 to extend losses to 1.3000. A move above 1.3090 suggests a retest of 1.3120. The four hour chart warns USDCAD is oversold, which may limit downside moves today. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3050 and 1.3005. Resistance is at 1.3080 and 1.3120. Today’s Range 1.3050-1.3120
Source: Saxo Bank
FX open (6:00 am EDT) High, Low, and previous close
Source: Saxo Bank