USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2907-1.2982      

The US dollar has started the week in New York with a bit of a strut and has made gains against everything but the Swiss Franc. There isn’t any particular reason for the renewed bid although some traders point out that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President, William Dudley was still calling for two rate hikes even after Friday’s employment data. Dubious at best but in a day without any major data, its as good as an excuse as any.

Asia FX traders walked in this morning and had to deal with weaker than expected China Trade data and the fall-out from the “disappointing” US nonfarm payrolls data. Weaker than expected China trade data didn’t do anything to bolster risk sentiment, either. AUDUSD traders added a July 2 “double dissolution, parliamentary election to the uncertainty mix. AUDUSD merely consolidated Friday’s losses at the lower end of the range.

Japanese traders came back from Golden Week holidays and bought USDJPY. A dash of verbal intervention by Japan’s Finance Minister helped the cause. The trend has continued in New York and USDJPY is firmly above 108.00 (Currently 108.42)

In Europe, GBPUSD got most of the attention.  It started off with an offered tone but bounced after hitting the 100 day moving average.  EURUSD went nowhere.

USDCAD stayed within a narrow range, albeit it at the high end of the previous week’s band. USDCAD demand from the weak domestic employment report and the “ok” US NFP data was offset by both technical resistance levels and firm oil prices. Oil prices have slid this morning and as a consequence, USDCAD popped up to 1.2980 from 1.2915 at this mornings New York open.

This week’s price action will be dictated by general US dollar sentiment and oil price swings due to a glaring lack of major data until Friday’s US Retail Sales.

USDCAD technical outlook

The USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.2880 looking for a break of the 1.3030-60 area to extend gains to 1.3313 which represents the 38.2% retracement level of the 1.2462-1.4688 range in 2016. A move below 1.2882 would risk further losses to 1.2770.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2920 and 1.2880.  Resistance is at 1.2980 and 1.3020

Today’s Range 1.2930-1.3030