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August 10, 2020

USDCAD Open (6:00 am) 1.3385-89,  Overnight Range 1.3370-1.3393

  • US COVID-19 Relief-Trump does it his way
  • US books 5,016,000 COVID-19 cases
  • US/China tensions curbing risk appetite-China sanctions Senators Cruz and Rubio
  • US dollar inches higher in quiet overnight session
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 Source: Saxo Bank/IFXA Ltd

FX Recap and outlook:  President Trump used the power of his office to support unemployed workers and employers.  Furloughed workers will get $400/week, with individual states asked to kick in another $100/week.  He also deferred the employee portion of the payroll tax from Aug 1 until year-end.

Asia stock markets were quiet as Japan and Singapore were closed. European bourses recouped earlier losses and are all in positive territory as are S&P 500 equity futures.  Gold prices are consolidating recent gains, and oil prices are a tad higher.

EURUSD is suffering from an over-abundance of buyers.  The weekly Commitment of Traders reports shows long EURUSD positions at new record highs, which suggests further gains above 1.1900 will be hard to achieve until the overbought positions subside.

The intraday technicals are bearish below 1.1790, and the RSI is overbought.

GBPUSD continues to retreat from last week’s peak and is in a minor downtrend while prices are below 1.3080.

There weren’t any economic reports, but a report suggesting a third of UK companies are planning layoffs didn’t help sentiment.

USDJPY consolidated Friday’s post-NFP gains in a narrow 105.73-106.04 range.  Increased US/China tensions capped gains.  Beijing sanctioned US Senators Cruz and Rubio in response to US actions against Chinese leaders.

AUDUSD and NZDUSD traded lower on the back of broad US dollar strength from increased risk aversion sentiment.

Oil prices climbed steadily overnight with WTI rising from $41.17-$41.96.  Prices were supported by Saudi Aramco forecasting increased demand for the rest of 2020, despite COVID-19.

USDCAD traded narrowly underpinned by broad US dollar demand.  Domestic economic data has been modestly positive.  On Friday, Canada added 419,000 jobs in July.  Traders were more concerned about the US data, and the US added a better than expected 1.8 million jobs.

The US and Canada economic calendars are empty.

USDCAD Technicals:   The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3405, looking for a topside break to extend gains to 1.3460. A break below 1.3370  suggests further losses to 1.3330.  The downtrend from March is intact while prices are below 1.3530. For today,  USDCAD support is at 1.3370and 1.3230.  Resistance is at 1.3410 and 1.3460.  Today’s Range 1.3330-1.3410

Chart: USDCAD daily

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Source:  Saxo Bank

FX Ranges:  open (6:00 am EDT) High, Low, and previous close

Source:  Saxo Bank