Overnight Range 1.3397-1.3432       

It may be the season to be jolly but not for everyone. The Russia Ambassador to Turkey’s assassination at an Ankara art show and the terror attack at a Berlin Christmas market that killed 12, cast a dark shadow across overnight markets. Risk aversion trading was evident but it was more of a trickle rather than a stampede.

Still, the greenback opened in New York, firmer than the previous close. Some of the move was in reaction to the terror attacks but a large part of the move was due to earlier comments from Janet Yellen and her upbeat assessment of the US labour mark

The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes were the focus early in Asia. The RBA hinted that they would leave rates unchanged for the time being, warned about high levels of household debt and remained uncertain about the impact of the US election. The AUDUSD reaction was minimal

Next up was the Bank of Japan policy meeting.  The BoJ left rates and policy unchanged and upgraded its economic assessment.  Inflation remained well below the BoJ’s target but the outlook improved.

USDJPY climbed from 116.96 to 118.25 before slipping lower to open in New York at 118.05

EURUSD inched higher in Asia, retreated throughout the European session and opened in New York at the overnight low of 1.0378. The terror events and a hawkish outlook for the Fed contributed to the move

GBPUSD dropped to 1.2330 from 1.2390 on comments from ECB member and Irish Central Bank head, Phillip Lane warning of a significant migration of financial activity out of the UK due to Brexit.

Oil prices grinded higher helped by rumours that the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly crude change report will show a big draw-down when the data is released at the end of the day.   WTI is currently $52.58

USDCAD retreated from its overnight high on the back of the API rumour and a better than expected Wholesale Sales report which rose 1.1% in October vs. forecast for a 1.5% decline.

USDCAD Technical outlook:

The intraday USDCAD technicals haven’t changed from yesterday.  USDCAD is bullish while prices are above 1.3350 looking for a break of resistance in the 1.3430-40 area to extend gains to 1.3480 and then 1.3550.  A move below 1.3350 delay’s the topside move and suggests additional consolidation within a 1.3180-1.3430 band.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3380 and 1.3350.  Resistance is at 1.3430 and 1.3480.

Today’s Range 1.3350-1.3430

Chart: USDCAD 30 minute