USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2998-1.3155  

Canada gained 41,000 new jobs in March with the bulk of the gains in full-time employment.  That news sent USDCAD tumbling from 1.3060 to 1.2998, almost immediately. The unemployment rate ticked lower, to 7.1% from 7.3%.  The Canadian dollar was already enjoying a positive morning due to USDCAD selling on profit taking and a rise in oil prices and the employment news made the day even more enjoyable for USDCAD bears.

The overnight session was fairly choppy. In Asia, USDJPY tried to climb back above 109.00 but couldn’t get any traction and is currently sitting at 108.85.  Still, it’s a far cry from yesterday’s 107.65 low. AUDUSD dropped steadily during Asia hours but rebounded in Europe but it is still down on the day.

GBPUSD spiked higher at the European open, rising to 1.4138 from 1.4040, for no apparent reason and then dropped back to the opening level. Since New York started, GBPUSD traded back to the 1.4100 area. EURUSD has been volatile within a 1.1350-1.1450 band.

The US dollar is ending the week decidedly mixed.  As of 6:30 am PST, sterling and the commodity currency bloc have lost ground with GBPUSD down 1.82% for the week. The Japanese yen is the biggest gainer, rising 3.1% while EURUSD is flat.

Next week has the potential to be volatile due to a plethora of Chinese data.  Negative surprises could ignite a renewed bout of risk aversion. The Bank of Canada interest rate decision and statement is due Wednesday which should be a “stay-the course, steady as she goes” statement with minimal USDCAD impact.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday technicals are bearish while trading below the 1.3090-1.3100 area encouraged by the break of minor support at 1.3060. There is minor support in the 1.2990-1.3005 area that if broken will extend losses to 1.2950 and then 1.2900.  A return above 1.3105 negates the intraday downtrend and implies addition upside back to the 1.3180-1.3200 area.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2990 and 1.2960.  resistance is at 1.3060 and 1.3090

Today’s Range 1.2990-1.3060

Chart: USDCAD  30 minute