USDCAD Overnight Range 1.3325-1.3415      

USDCAD soared to 1.3388 from 1.3325 on an ugly headline unemployment number. StatsCanada reported that Canada lost 35,700 jobs in November, a far cry from Octobers gain of 44,400. It was actually no big deal and not totally unexpected.   33,000 job  losses were in part-time employment stemming from the election.  Still, the report was mixed a best and the Trade data didn’t do the Canadian dollar any favours. The deficit widened and exports decreased. Taken together, the two pieces of data plus renewed EURCAD demand reinforced the bullish USDCAD bias resulting in a test of 1.3415.

US nonfarm payrolls lived up to expectations and beat the consensus forecast, posting a gain of 211,000. (Forecast 200,000). It didn’t change the short term dynamics in EURUSD. EURUSD losses were short-lived and the single currency continued its grind higher from the New York opening.

The US dollar recouped some of yesterday’s losses in EURUSD overnight, after peaking at 1.0980.  The slide, that started in Asia continued during the European session but stalled at 1.0855.

The weak Canadian data combined with the soft oil prices will keep USDCAD pointed toward resistance in the 1.3455-65 area.  The wild card will be developments from today’s Opec meeting which is still in progress.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.3295 supported by this morning’s break above intraday resistance in the 1.3395-1.3405 area which opens up a test of 1.3465. This level represents the 2015 peak as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire 2002-2007 range.  Failure at this level would lead to additional 1.3300-1.3460 consolidation

Forecast Range for the day 1.3340-1.3420

Chart USDCAD 1 hour

CAD 4 DEC 2015