USDCAD Overnight Range 1.3458-1.3550      

Canadian Q4 GDP data surprised to the upside and USDCAD dropped. Real GDP grew 0.2% in Q4 following a 0.6% increase in Q3, handily beating estimates and greatly diminishing prospects for Bank of Canada policy action on March 9. That was all USDCAD bears needed to see.  USDCAD dropped to 1.3458 from 1.3520 but the decline stalled in the 1.3460 support area and USDCAD bounced back to 1.3490

The US dollar had a very mixed and fairly quiet overnight session, despite being inundated with data from various regions. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged and issued a statement that bordered on optimistic. AUDUSD gained on the news but has since slipped back. Yen gains early in the session were also reversed and USDJPY turned bid. China PMI data missed forecasts and came in lower (Caxin Manufacturing PMI 48.0 vs. forecast 48.4) but the news was ignored by traders

In Europe, the final reading of Eurozone PMI was revised higher, to 51.2 from 51.0 while in the UK, Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.8 which helped to snap a profit taking rally in GBPUSD.

WTI prices have climbed steadily overnight but are stayed well-below key resistance in the $34.60-90 area. The morning move below $34.05 snapped a minor intraday uptrend suggesting additional $33.00-34.50 consolidation ahead.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish while trading below 1.3540 looking for a break of support at 1.3460 to extend losses to 1.3400.  However, there is a lot of longer term support in the 1.3420-60 area stemming from prior resistance/support levels and uptrends which may limit USDCAD losses and lead to 1.3460-1.3640 consolidation.  For today, USDCADE support is at 1.3460, 1.3440 and 1.3420.  Resistance is at 1.3505 and 1.3540

Forecast Range for the day 1.3440-1.3510

Chart USDCAD 1 hour

mar 1st