USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2700-1.2820  

By the time you read this you will have had your fill of trite Star Wars references due to the date so you won’t find any here.  However, a very old and wise FX trader, Obi-wan Kenobi, observed that the force was strong with this one, when looking at his USDCAD position.

And he wasn’t kidding.  USDCAD held on to all of yesterday’s impressive 0.0268 point gain and then added to it in Europe, after a little wobble in Asia. That trend continued in New York. Traders took exception to the poor Canadian trade data while the US trade data improved and smacked the Loonie.

USDCAD made a new 2016 low when it traded at 1.2462 yesterday.  However, the subsequent bounce was impressive. This morning’s decisive break above 1.2750 opens the door to a revisit to the 1.3000 area. A weaker than expected Canadian employment report on Friday could be the catalyst for the move.

In Asia, USDJPY spiked sharply higher in very thin markets after the New York close, exacerbated by the Japan Golden Week holidays, and then chopped around before retracing back to the closing level when New York started. An attempted AUDUSD rally failed.

In Europe, EURUSD bounced 0.0025 points either side of 1.1500 support and continued to do so in New York.  A strong US dollar, weak domestic data and another Brexit poll with the Exit side ahead drove GBPUSD lower and it too, has since bounced.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish following the break of the downtrend line at 1.2550 yesterday. The breech of key resistance in the 1.2660-80 area accelerated the move and today’s break above 1.2750 has set the stage for additional gains to 1.3000. A break below 1.2660 would lead back to 1.2580.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2750, 1.2710 and 1.2690.  Resistance is at 1.2820 and 1.2860

Today’s Range 1.2750-1.2640

Chart: USDCAD 4 hour