USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2415-1.2520      

USDCAD soared following a much worse than expected Canadian GDP report, jumping to 1.2525 from 1.2430 in a flash. GDP printed -0.2% instead of the expected gain of 0.2%, m/m. The move occurred despite a less-than-stellar US GDP result which was mixed at best.  The US headline number was slightly better than forecast while PCE and Core PCE both missed. The Canadian dollar got a minor reprieve from the Chicago PMI index which came in at 46.2 vs forecast of 53.0.

Overnight, FX trading was mostly uneventful. Kiwi and Aussie are moving in opposite directions together. Kiwi is down on a soft Consumer Confidence index while AUDNZD demand underpinned AUDUSD.  USDJPY is still digesting contrasting remarks from the Finance Minister and the Economics Minister. In Europe, EURUSD drifted higher, a pattern which continued in New York.

USDCAD may come under renewed selling pressure on rebalancing flows due to the monthly Reuters/WM fix which occurs at 16:00GMT, which if it occurs, may provide an opportunity to buy dollars at the proverbial “better levels”.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish above 1.2420 hoping to extend gains through resistance in the 1.2550-70 area to extend gains to 1.2820.  This morning’s post GDP rally above 1.2450 snapped a minor intraday downtrend which should now revert to support.  For today, USD support is at 1.2450 and 1.2410.  Resistance is at 1.2530, and 1.2570.

Today’s Range 1.2430-1.2530


Chart: USDCAD Daily with Fibonacci retracement levels