USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2800-1.2895  

USDCAD has shrugged off Asia selling pressure on the back of favourable China data and took its direction from oil prices.  WTI was fairly resilient and held the intraday $410-130 support zone until the late morning hours in Europe.  Suddenly traders appeared to have second thoughts that the weekend Opec/non-Opec meeting could deliver any near term price support and started unwinding some positions. That move snow-balled and WTI dropped from a high of $42.62 to $41.24. Consequently, USDCAD rallied to 1.2895 and is now tracking WTI price movements, tick for tick.  It didn’t help that this morning’s February Canadian Manufacturing shipments data was weaker-than-expected.

Asia FX markets had a rather understated reaction to a slew of China data which came out slightly better than forecast and GDP growing 6.7%, year over year. USDJPY was in demand, in part due to the Japanese Finance Minister’s comments that “Bank of Japan policy is not affected by the pledge to avoid targeting exchange rates as excessive currency moves are undesirable”.

In Europe, EURUSD was rangebound but unlike the beginning of the week, the new range is 1.1230-1.1330.  GBPUSD trading will continue to be governed by Brexit polls and Brexit headlines

As of 6:30 am PDT, the US dollar is ending the week on a mixed note which, is probably a reflection of a lack of conviction in markets rather than anything else. Kiwi is the biggest gainer on the week and it is well -off its best level while the Canadian dollar is the biggest loser but well off its worst level.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.2820 supported by the break of the 1.2850-60. While prices remain below the 1.3030-50 zone, this move is merely a correction inside a downtrend.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2840 and 1.2800.  Resistance is at 1.2890, 1.2920 and 1.2960Today’s Range 1.2820-1.2920

Chart: USDCAD  30 minute