USDCAD Overnight Range 1.3868-1.4101      

The Canadian dollar has taken flight.  USDCAD climbed to 1.4101 in Asia and then collapsed.  It started in Europe and accelerated on the New York open and the move has been a one-way street. And the Loonie is not alone.

The US dollar is down against all the G-10 currencies and NZDUSD is the biggest gainer.  The rationale for the move is rather vague.  The Russian Foreign Minister said that “if there was a consensus among Opec to meet, then we will meet”. That comment gave some support to oil which is now $30.64/b, up from the overnight low of $29.40.

Another reason is that MNI reported that the Fed’s Dudley made very doveish comments in an interview suggesting that the recent market turmoil may have a bigger impact on the March FOMC decision.

In Asia, NZDUSD rallied on a fairly hawkish speech from the RBNZ governor while AUDUSD lagged on mixed economic data.  The BoJ governor undermined USDJPY with comments about “no limit to monetary easing”.

In Europe, EURUSD traded sideways while GBPUSD caught a bid ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England policy statement and quarterly interest rate report.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish while trading below 1.4070 supported by the break of the intraday uptrend line at 1.4000.  The morning break of support in the 1.3920-50 area targets further losses to 1.3800 which represents the 61.8% retracement level of the December-January range. For today, USDCAD support is at1.3850, 1.3820 and 1.3800.  Resistance is at 1.3890, 1.3930 and 1.3960.

Forecast Range for the day 1.3800-1.3890

Chart USDCAD 3 hour

CAD 3 FEB 2016