Overnight Range  1.3081-1.3133                 

This mornings ADP report modestly beat forecasts (Actual 177,000 vs. forecast 175,000) and gave the US dollar a bit of a bump. USDCAD jumped on the release of Q2 GDP data. (Actual -1.6% vs. forecast -1.5%, annualized q/q) However, June GDP rose 0.6% vs. forecast for a 0.4% gain.  Arguably, the June data is the more important number considering Q2 information was expected and is stale.

It was a fairly subdued overnight session. August is ending with a whimper. USDCAD traded within a 0.0030-point range and opened in New York right where it closed, yesterday. Month-end rebalancing flows have so far been negligible which is expected to be the case for todays” Fix” at 11:00 am.

In Asia, Aussie and Kiwi dipsy doodled within fairly narrow ranges while USDJPY didn’t stray too far from 103.00.  Boston Fed President, Eric Rosengren and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans were speaking at the Shanghai Advanced Institute. Mr. Rosengren sounded hawkish, saying “keeping interest rates low for a long time is not without risks”. Mr. Evans contradicted him when he said he sees fewer financial stability concerns with the current low level of interest rates.  FX traders didn’t to care one way or the other.

In Europe, the Eurozone CPI index declined (Actual CPI-Aug. preliminary 0.2% vs. forecast 0.3%, y/y, Core-Actual 0.8% vs. forecast 0.9%, y/y)

USDCAD technical outlook.

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.3040. The post GDP break of the overnight high points to additional gains to 1.3190 and then 1.3250.  Longer term, the USDCAD uptrend from May remains intact while prices are above the 1.2750-70 zone.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3090 and 1.3060.  Resistance is at 1.3150 and 1.3190.

Today’s Range 1.3090-1.3160

Chart: USDCAD  30 minute