USDCAD Overnight Range 1.3130-1.3190      

USDCAD has been all over the map since New York walked in and a lot of the blame for the erratic trading can be blamed on month-end portfolio flows.  The shift from daylight savings time in Europe last weekend means today’s “Fix” is at 9:00 AM PDT or 12 noon, EDT.Instead of the usual 8:00 am PDT or 11:00 am EDT.

The rumour mill is spinning a tale of decent sized US dollar selling which may be behind some of the moves. At the same time, Canadian GDP data was as expected and should be mildly supportive to the Canadian dollar. However, oil prices slipped from their overnight peak which halted an intraday Canadian dollar rally in its tracks.

It was a busy session in Asia. The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged (no surprise) but left policy unchanged as well (some surprise). There were more than a few traders who expected the BoJ to announce addition stimulus and when it didn’t occur USDJPY dropped then rallied back to 121.41 and then declined again and is currently trading at 120.63. Kiwi was also a high flier.  NZDUSD rose on a better than expected. ANZ Business Confidence report. Eurozone activity was a lot quieter and economic data was slightly positive.

This morning’s US PCE data was on the soft side of the equation while the Chicago PMI index beat forecasts (Actual 56.2 vs. forecast 49.0)

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday technicals are bearish while trading below1.3190 supported by the break of the uptrend line from the October 12 low. A break below minor support at 1.3120 would accelerate the decline and lead to a test of the 1.3040-60 area.  A move above 1.3190 targets a retest of 1.3250.

Today’s forecast range is 1.3180-1.3290

Chart USDCAD 4 hour with broken uptrend shown