Overnight Range   1.3146-1.3187     

USDCAD traders looking at today’s 6:00 am open rate and the overnight range can be forgiven if they think that they have seen it before.  They have.  Yesterday.

It was another quiet overnight session, exacerbated in Asia by a holiday in Singapore and a lack of top tier data that is available or even on the horizon. USDJPY went nowhere in Asia and Europe but declined in early New York trading.  AUDUSD drifted higher while NZDUSD eased in part due to chatter that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could cut rates by 0.50 bps on Thursday, rather than the 25% that is almost unanimously expected. China CPI data came in as expected while PPI was slightly better.

FX markets weren’t totally dead in Europe. EURUSD traders ignored German Trade data and the currency pair drifted sideways. It was a different story in the UK.  Soft manufacturing data and doveish comments from a Bank of England, Monetary Policy Committee member, Ian McCafferty undermined GBPUSD. Mr. McCafferty warned of more quantitative easing if the British economy deteriorated.

Oil prices drifted lower during the Asia session but rebounded back to just $43.24 as of 6:00 am PDT.   On one hand, traders are feeling bullish because of the possibility of production cap talks taking place in Algiers in September.  On the other hand, the supply/demand imbalance hasn’t really changed so optimism may be misplaced.

Canada Housing Starts were 198.4K vs. a forecast for 195.0K The data didn’t have any impact on USDCAD trading.  The US data wasn’t a factor, either

USDCAD technical outlook.

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.3150 which represents the minor uptrend line from Friday’s post-employment data break above resistance at 1.3090.  That means a move below the uptrend line should lead to a re-test of 1.3090.  If that level breaks, a steeper decline to 1.3000 is likely. A break above 1.3190 will extend gains to 1.3240-60 resistance area.

Today’s Range 1.3120-1.3190

uscad 9th august