USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2035 -1.2128
USDCAD shrugged off the worst Canadian Trade deficit on record (a $3.0 deficit) and moved lower in tandem with rising WTI prices that broke strong resistance at $60.00/bbl. The oil price rally is occurring despite no evidence of a respite in the glut that precipitated the November collapse. It remains to be seen if the current USDCAD weakness will be maintained in the face of a potentially poor Canadian employment report on Friday, especially if NFP is strong.
Greece was the focus in Europe and is still the focus now. A Reuters report quotes the Greek PM as stating that the May 11 deadline may not be met. The Financial Times says that the IMF may bail on providing more bail-out funds unless European lenders write off a significant chunk of Greece debt. The EU cut its forecast for Greek growth to 0.5% from 2.5% for 2015. EURUSD was sold but it has since bounced.
USDCAD technical outlook
The intraday technicals are bearish. The break of the minor uptrend line at 1.2090, stemming from the April 29th low has shifted the focus to a retest of 1.1960-80. There will be minor support seen at 1.2015. A move above 1.2130 argues for additional 1.2000-1.2200 consolidation
Today’s Range 1.2010-1.2090
Chart: USDCAD 1 hour-Intraday uptrend broken