April 23, 2019

USDCAD Open (6:00 am EDT) 1.3369-72:   Overnight Range 1.3346-1.3375

The Easter holidays are history, but you wouldn’t know they are, judging by FX ranges.  The major G-10 currencies chopped sideways inside well-defined ranges against the US dollar, with CHF, AUD, NZD and CAD sinking while JPY inched higher.  EUR opened unchanged from yesterday’s New York closing level.

USDCAD traded with a bid, despite WTI oil prices climbing to $61.6/barrel overnight. The spike in WTI prices is being ignored in part because the lack of pipeline capacity in Alberta limits the benefit of higher prices for crude in Canada.  Traders are more concerned about upcoming risks of a dovish Bank of Canada policy statement and downgraded forecasts in Wednesday’s Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report.

EURUSD couldn’t get any traction in either direction and the price action was hampered by a lack of top tier economic data.

GBPUSD outperformed, rising from 1.2976 yesterday to 1.3018 in early New York trading although there wasn’t any specific catalyst for the gains.

AUDUSD and NZDUSD suffered from the spike in oil prices and President Trump’s plan to remove all waivers for Iran exports.  Aussie traders were also concerned that if the upcoming CPI data was weaker than expected, it could spur the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates.

FX traders were a tad concerned about a shift into risk aversion trades in case of adverse reactions to the removal of Iran oil waivers by China, India, South Korea, Turkey, and Japan.

The US economic reports are second-tier and include New Home Sales and Richmond Manufacturing Index.  Canada releases February Wholesale Sales data.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

USDCAD continues to bounce between support at 1.3260 and resistance at 1.3460, levels which have contained price action since the beginning of March.  A break either side should result in a 0.0100 point move. Prices ares currently in a mild uptrend, looking for another test of the topside.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3350 and 1.3320.  Resistance is at 1.3380 and 1.3410.  Today’s Range 1.3350-1.3410

Chart: USDCAD  daily