USDCAD Overnight Range 1.4060-1.4125    

The highly anticipated US nonfarm payrolls data surpassed expectations and posted a gain of 292,000 jobs (Forecast 200,000). However, the US dollar’s reaction to the news failed to impress traders. Initial USD gains were quickly erased as traders remained focused on China.

Canada also released a healthy employment report reporting a gain of 22,800 vs. a forecast for a gain of 10,000. Unfortunately, all the gains were in part-time.  In addition, USDCAD is being driven by external influences and domestic data is mostly ignored.

China equity markets did not implode overnight. They were helped by rumoured government intervention and USDCNY being fixed 0010 pts lower. (6.5636) That was all that commodity currency bloc traders needed to know.  Yesterday’s worst performing trio (AUD, NZD, CAD) recovered while safe haven trades were pared back.

Chinese equity indices finished in the “green” but that wasn’t the case for global indices.  The other major Asia indices were down while European indices are mixed.

WTI prices touched $34.34/b overnight but are now just above the overnight low ($33.39/b).  Still, they are higher than yesterday’s $32.14 bottom, but that may just be temporary

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish but need to break either side of the current 1.4050-1.4130 trading band which would result in a gain or loss of 0.0050 points. The daily uptrend remains intact above 1.4090 while the uptrend from November 30 comes into play at 1.3930. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.4060 and 1.4010.  Resistance is at 1.4130 and 1.4180.

Forecasted Range 1.4060-1.4130

Chart USDCAD hourly with intraday trading band shown

CAD 8TH 2016