USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2260-1.2350    

The highly anticipated US retail Sales report surpassed expectations with a gain of 1.2% (ex-auto’s 1.0%). As expected, the US dollar rallied but what wasn’t expected was the very short duration of the rally.USDCAD popped to 1.2350 from 1.2320 in seconds and then plunged back below 1.2300 even quicker. That same story played out against all the majors.

With Retail Sales out of the way, traders can put all their focus onto next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting which should make for choppy markets over the next few sessions.

It was and wild and woolly Asian session. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised markets with a 0.25% rate cut and a very doveish statement which included the usual whine about “NZD being over-valued” Kiwi plunged to 0.7020 from 0.7190 on the news. It hasn’t really recovered. AUDUSD went the other way, at least for a little while when a stronger than expected Aussie employment report handily beat forecasts. The AUDUSD bounce to 0.7790 from 0.7710 was short lived as Aussie employment data forecasting is as bad as its Canadian counterpart. Government officials in Japan were doing damage control to offset the effects of the BoJ governor Kuroda’s comments yesterday and USDJPY edged higher. The European session was dull with traders sidelined ahead of the US data.

.USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday technicals are bullish while trading above 1.2300 which represents an uptrend from yesterday’s low.  However, as long as the topside is capped at 1.2350, the intraday rally is seen as a correction, within the downtrend. A move back below 1.2290 will see a retest of 1.2200.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2260 and 1.2210.  Resistance is at 1.2330 and 1.2360

Today’s Range 1.2260-1.2350

Chart: USDCAD 30 minute with daily trading range noted