USDCAD Overnight Range 1.3040-1.3160
USDCAD has been climbing since the start of the day and it has nothing to do with the Canadian dollar. St Louis Fed president, James Bullard, is speaking again today and he is making hawkish sounds which appear to rebut the markets conclusion that the FOMC are doveish. It is also a long weekend coming up and the move may just be a bout of pre-weekend position adjustment.
In Asia, AUDUSD got a bit of a boost when a major domestic bank, ANZ Bank, changed their interest rate forecast from 2 cuts in 2016 to none. USDJPY moved higher but it was just following the herd.
The dollar stayed bid in Europe for all the same reasons but volumes were reportedly lighter than usual. GBPUSD was sold on another poll showing the Brexit leave faction in the lead and an early New York attempt at a rally failed miserably.
WTI oil prices are holding in remarkably well despite yesterdays, end of day API report showing that US Crude Oil stocks had risen 8.7 million barrels in the week.
The Federal budget was pretty much as forecasted and while the large deficits for longer, are a macroeconomic negative, increased spending may provide the Canadian dollar with a bit of support.
USDCAD technical outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.3040 but stymied by resistance in the 1.3140-60 zone. A break above 1.3160 would extend gains to 1.3190 and then 1.3340, the level that broke following the doveish FOMC statement. A move below 1.3030 would expose USDCAD to further weakness to the 1.2950 area. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3040 and 1.3010. Resistance is at 1.3160 and 1.3190
Today’s Range 1.3070-1.3160
Chart: USDCAD 30 minute