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March 11, 2021

USDCAD open (6:00 am ET) 1.2576-80,  Overnight Range 1.2580-1.2623,  Close 1.2620

FX Ranges at a Glance 

Source: IFXA Ltd/RP

FX Recap and Outlook:   Dr Feelgood answered the bell.   The passing of President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, a successful 10-year government note auction, tame inflation readings, and plans for a US/China summit in Alaska boosted global risk sentiment.

The reaction is dubious.  You would have to search long and hard to find any market participant unaware of the stimulus package.  Traders are known for anticipating rather than reacting.  That explains the lack of a significant equity index rally in Europe.  The major indexes are trading mixed around flat.   S&P 500 futures are more optimistic.  They have gained 0.76% as of 6:27 am ET.

The lack of drama around yesterday’s Treasury auction knocked 10-year Treasury yields from yesterday’s peak of 1.565% to 1.475% overnight, before climbing to 1.50% in NY.

Gold traders were happy to see interest rate pressures ease, and prices climbed to $1739.69 from $1708.55 yesterday.

US Secretary of State  Antony Blinken and White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan meet with their Chinese counterparts in Alaska on March 18.

US Jobless Claims rose 712,000, a tad better than the forecast of 725,000. However the improvement was negated by the upwardly revised results from last wee.

EURUSD was steady in Asia, then climbed from 1.1917 to 1.1968, where it started the New York session.  Prices slid from their NY peak following the ECB monetary policy statement.  The ECB left rates unchanged but surprised markets when they said: “purchases under the PEPP over the next quarter to be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of this year.”   

The intraday technicals are bullish above 1.1910, looking for a break above 1.1980 to extend gains to 1.2050.

GBPUSD basked in the glow of improved global risk sentiment, with prices climbing from 1.3920 to 1.3962 at the NY open.   The rally may run out of steam soon. The UK vaccine outperformance compared to the Eurozone story is old, and there is ongoing trade friction between the EU and UK.   The EU is reportedly blocking vaccine exports to Britain and UK German trade has plunged.  The intraday technicals are bullish, targeting a test of 1.4000.

USDJPY rallied in Asia, reaching 108.80, then dropped to 108.37 in early NY markets mostly due to the dip in US 10-year Treasury yields.

AUDUSD is at the top of its 0.7723-0.7775 range.  The gains were fueled by improved risk sentiment and by news of the Australian government would spend $1.2 billion subsidising domestic flights to boost tourism.

USDCAD dropped due to broad US dollar weakness.  The currency pair didn’t get any help from yesterday’s Bank of Canada monetary policy statement.  The BoC acknowledged the better than expected GDP data but stuck to their dovish script, noting “there is still considerable economic slack.”

Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri delivers a speech  titled “Savings in the time of COVID-19, and the outlook for household spending,” 9:30 am PT.

USDCAD Technicals:  The intraday technicals are bearish below 1.2620 looking for a break below 1.2550 to test 1.2470.  A move above 1.2620 shifts the focus to 1.2660 and 1.2710.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2550and 1.2500.  Resistance is at 1.2620 and 1.2660. Todays Range 1.2510-1.2610

Chart: USDCAD daily

Source:  Saxo Bank

FX open (6:00 am EDT) High, Low, and previous close

Source:  Saxo Bank