USDCAD Overnight Range 1.3380-1.3444        

The Bank of Canada did what they said they would do which was nothing.  They left the target for the overnight rate at ½% however the statement was smugly cautious.  They patted themselves on the back for what they believe was anticipating the current progression of the global economy and are content to wait for the impact of the upcoming fiscal measures by the Federal government. The notes of caution splashed throughout the press release appear to have been included to keep FX traders from ditching rate cut views and to act as a brake against Loonie gains.  So far it didn’t work.  USDCAD dropped to from 1.3416 to 1.3350, where it sits now.

There wasn’t a whole lot to get excited about in Asia or European trading.  There was FX movement but mostly along the lines of position jockeying ahead of three central bank meetings.( now just two) The most important meeting being Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting. The other two, Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, due today, are merely warm-up acts for the main event.

Oil prices remain firm on anticipation of a successful conclusion to a meeting between Russia and Opec, in Moscow on March 20, where production caps and other price stabilization measures will be discussed. WTI has traded in a $36.24-$37.36/b range and currently sits at $37.11

FX traders will be biding their time until tomorrow’s ECB meeting leaving currency pairs to shuffle around within recent ranges.

USDCAD technical outlook

The short term and intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish. The intraday downtrend remains intact while trading below 1.3440 and the downtrend from January is intact while trading below 1.3620.  However, USDCAD losses below 1.3296 (200 day moving average) and support from prior multi day tops and bottoms in the 1.3220-50 area will slow gains.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3310, 1.3290 and 1.3260.  Resistance is at 1.3380 and 1.3420

Chart USDCAD 4 hour