November 4, 2019

USDCAD open 1.3165-69 (6:00 am EST)    Overnight Range 1.343-1.3171

Chinese officials suggested that it had reached a consensus, with the US, in principle, on Friday. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer echoed those remarks. Oil prices reacted to the improved trade tone but the commodity bloc currencies, not so much.

The US dollar opened with minor gains compared to Friday’s close. NZD is the exception. 

FX Market Snapshot Daily

Change in currency value against the US dollar from NY close to NY open

EURUSD drifted in a 1.1150-1.1174 range and opened in the middle of that band. Traders are waiting to hear Christine Lagarde’s first speech as President of the European Central Bank. Prices are underpinned by Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data for October, which was 45.9 compared to 45.7 in September. Additional support stemmed from talk that the US may back away from slapping tariffs on EU automobiles.

GBPUSD slipped to 1.2911 from 1.2941 even though October Construction PMI was a tick higher than forecast. (Actual 44.2 vs forecast 44) the latest polls have Boris Johnson’s conservative party with a16 point lead over Labour, which would be a comfortable majority government, according to the UK Guardian.

USDJPY traded quietly in Asia due to a holiday in Japan. Prices climbed from 108.19 to 108.45, in part because of the improved tone to the US/China trade talks.

NZDUSD outperformed AUDUSD. Kiwi got a boost from news that the New Zealand government signed an upgraded trade agreement with China, its largest trading partner. AUDUSD suffered from weak. Retail Sales data. Traders also await the Reserve Bank of Australia policy announcement tomorrow, expecting a dovish statement.

Oil prices firmed following the news of US/China trade talks progress. WTI oil rose from $54.15/barrel on Friday to open at $56.68/b today. 

USDCAD is supported by bullish sentiment following last week’s price action. The currency pair hit 1.3045 on Tuesday and touched 1.3204 on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada’s dovish statement. Fears of a looming rate cut, knocked Canada 2 year bond yields lower, fueling the USDCAD rally. However, topside gains above 1.3180 may be difficult if US/China trade continue to show progress and oil prices remain firm.

There are not any Canadian or US economic reports of note, today. Traders may be distracted by the Saudi Aramco IPO expected today.

 USDCAD Technical View

The intraday USDCAD technicals are biased while prices remain in a 1.3120-1.3180 range. A break above 1.3180 suggests further gains to 1.3250 and then 1.3320. A break below 1.3120 targets a retest of 1.3040. However, the long term uptrend, from September 2017 is intact while prices are above 1.3040. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3120 and 1.3090. Resistance is 1.3180 and 1.3220. Today’s Range 1.3110-1.3170

Chart: USDCAD 4 hour

Source: Saxo Bank