USDCAD Overnight Range 1.3326-1.3375    

FX markets have been surprisingly calm in light of the news that Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 fighter jet for violating its air space.  Russia has shown great restraint, for now, but Americans may not be the only ones carving up turkey this week.  At the very least the news may have added an element of risk aversion into the markets

The Asian session was dull and the European session hasn’t been much better.  German GDP was on consensus while the IFO survey was very strong.  EURUSD traders merely yawned at the news. The RBA governor, Glenn Steven’s didn’t “talk down” the Aussie dollar, in a speech early in the European session, making it a non-factor.  The same held true for Bank of England governor.  Mark Carney’s testimony to the Treasury Select Committee didn’t spark any reaction in GBPUSD.

None of this morning’s deluge of data from the US (GDP, PCE, Trade Balance and Case-Shiller Home Prices) injected any fresh insight into the US rate debate which led to a small drift lower in the US dollar. US GDP managed to beat expectations, rising 2.1%, but it was well below the second quarter gains so disappointing nevertheless.

There isn’t any data of note from Canada leaving the Canadian dollar to track WTI moves.  Yesterday’s news that Saudi Arabia would consider working with Opec and non-Opec countries may have reinforced the floor in the $47.70/$40.00/barrel zone and also elevated the risk of a WTI short squeeze.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.3290.  However, yesterday’s move below 1.3380 and the subsequent break below the minor uptrend line at 1.3360 suggests additional 1.3320-1.3390 consolidation is likely.  A move through 1.3320 targets 1.3290 while above 1.3390 puts 1.3455 in play.

Forecast Range for the day 1.3290-1.3360

Chart USDCAD 4 hour