September 24, 2019
USDCAD Open (6:00 am EDT) 1.3254-58 Overnight Range 1.3252-1.3266
New York traders were just turning on their computers this morning when headlines flashed “Supreme Court rules Johnson’s proroguing of parliament was unlawful.” GBPUSD spiked to 1.2488 from 1.2445 immediately and then edged down to 1.2445. Opposition party leaders are calling for Johnson’s resignation.
The frantic GBPUSD price action around the court decision was the only bright spot in an otherwise moribund overnight FX session. The greenback was trading flat to slightly lower against the major G-10 currencies except against the yen at the New York open.
FX Market Snapshot
Change in Currency value vs the US dollar- NY close to NY open
President Trump brings his unique brand of statesmanship to the United Nations this morning. He will strive to receive the cloying media admiration generated by Gerda the Climate-change Puppet. Whatever happened to children should be seen and not heard?
EURUSD traded in such a narrow range that one would be forgiven for thinking it was a pegged currency. The German IFO survey delivered modestly positive results. September Business Climate (Actual 94.6 vs previous 94.3) and Current Assessment (Actual 98.5 vs previous 97.3) results rose while Expectations were weaker than expected German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier admitted that economic growth forces had deteriorated but said Germany was not in a recession. EURUSD traders yawned and the currency pair traded in a 1.0985-99 band.
USDJPY inched higher, rising from 107.49 to 107.79 on the back of firmer US Treasury yields. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda provided a dose of verbal intervention when he said “As risks regarding overseas economy are heightening, we need to be increasingly vigilant to the chance the overseas slowdown could affect Japan’s economy and inflation.”
AUDUSD traded with a bit of a bid overnight and then jumped from 0.6780 to 0.6804 alongside the post-UK court decision, spike in GBPUSD. China’s announcement of more waivers for US Soy purchases helped risk sentiment. NZDUSD traded similarly, but gains were limited by concerns the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Wednesday would be dovish.
USDCAD is an after-thought. Soft oil prices are underpinning prices while reasonably healthy economic data and diminishing expectations for an October interest rate cut are capping gains.
Today’s USD data releases include Consumer Confidence and Case-Shiller Home Prices Index. In addition, equity traders will be watching for the EU General Court ruling on the validity of a €13 billion EU tax claim against Apple.
USDCAD Technical View
The intraday USDCAD technicals are unchanged from yesterday. They are bullish while prices are above 1.3250, looking for a break above resistance at 1.3320 to extend gains to the 1.3340-80 resistance zone. A decisive topside break would target 1.3550 and then 1.3660. A break below 1.3250 keeps the 1.3040-1.3340 range intact. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3240 and 1.3190. Resistance is at 1.3310 and 1.3340. Today’s Range 1.3210-1.3290.
Chart: USDCAD 4 hour