USDCAD Overnight Range 1.3407-1.3471    

The US dollar has drifted lower against all of the G10 currencies with the exception of the Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar but the moves have been fairly shallow. This mornings release of 2nd tier US data didn’t do much for or against the “rebounding economic growth” story. Q4 Labour productivity was sluggish and Jobless claims rose, but not materially.

The Asia session had bouts of entertainment. Another slice of better-than-expected data provided additional lift to AUDUSD and it started the New York session as the best performing G10 currency. A rising Nikkei helped drive USDJPY to the 114.20-50 resistance area which has capped gains since mid-February.

European trading action was lacking.  Weak UK services PMI data was ignored and GBPUSD stayed bid. The Eurozone saw a stronger-than-expected Retail Sales report and a slightly better reading in the final Markit Services report but that wasn’t enough to break EURUSD out of its narrow 1.0850-85 trading range.

Oil prices have drifted off the overnight high since New York walked in but remain well above $34.00/b.  The news of a production cap agreement between Russia and most of Opec has traders believing that over-supply issues will disappear.

USDCAD is approaching the downtrend line from the break of the 1.3630-50 support zone which comes into play in the 1.3480-90 area, in a move likely precipitated by pre-payrolls position adjustment.  Overnight, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau drew on his BA, English Literature and drama teacher experience to lecture global leaders on how to spur economic growth in a speech in Vancouver.  His remarks were ignored.

USDCAD technical outlook

The USDCAD technicals are bearish while trading below both 1.3650 and 1.3480 looking for a break of 1.3370 to extend losses to 1.3279.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3405, 1.3370 and 1.3330.  Resistance is at 1.3480 and 1.3510

Forecast Range for the day 1.3410-1.3480

Chart USDCAD 4 hour