USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2450-1.2520

USDCAD has backed off of the overnight peak and dipped down to 1.2453 just prior to the release of the US GDP data which, at 2.2% yoy, modestly beat the forecast of 2.1%. The subsequent bounce back above 1.2500 was less a factor of the data but more likely due to a drop in EURUSD to 1.1175 from 1.1245. The Chicago PMI was weak (45.8 vs. forecast of 58.0) and leaked early, adding to the FX market confusion. The weakness has been attributed to weather and the port strike so the data will be ignored.

Overnight, AUDUSD on a renewed rate cut debate ahead of Tuesday’s RBA meeting.  Will they or won’t they?  Initial AUDUSD losses were recovered but the currency pair is still trading with an offered tone.

Today is the last day of the month and therefore, portfolio rebalancing day. There are reports that the 16:00 GMT fix (8:00 am PST) will lead to selling of US dollars against the majors, including CAD.  However, the prospect of that one-off, intraday flow is struggling against renewed US dollar demand due to the prospect of higher US rates, sooner than expected.  Furth gains in WTI from $49.10 could add to Canadian dollar demand.

USDCAD technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish while trading below 1.2505-10 with a break of 1.2450 suggesting further losses to 1.2380-1.2410 today.  A break above 1.2550 risks further upside to 1.2640. For today, USD support is at 1.2450, 1.2410 and 1.2380.  Resistance is at 1.2520, 1.2550 and 1.2610.

Today’s Range 1.2410-1.2510

Chart: USDCAD hourly showing intraday downtrend still intact