The US dollar inched higher in quiet FX trading. Australia and the UK were closed for holidays. The FX majors stayed well-within Friday’s post-nonfarm payrolls ranges. US NFP added 162,000 jobs, below the 192,000 consensus forecast and disappointing the many expecting and upward surprise. The unemployment rate dipped to an 18 year low of 3.9% which eased the sting of the headline number. The US dollar rallied retreated some and then consolidated.
USDJPY found a bottom at 108.76 in early Asia trading and then climbed steadily, opening in New York, near the peak of 109.31. The Bank of Japan minutes were released. Some members said it was “too early” to discuss exiting ultra-easy monetary policy.
AUDUSD got a short-lived boost by better than expected NAB Business Confidence and Conditions Index data. It climbed in Asia but dropped to session lows by the New York start. NZDUSD mirrored AUDUSD moves.
EURUSD rose in Asia because of profit-taking due to disappointment from the US jobs data. European traders reversed those gains, with weaker-than forecast German Factory orders and Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data weighing on the single-currency.
GBPUSD remained inside Friday’s range, bouncing in a 1.3527-1.3563 band. Sterling may be getting a bit of support from pre-Bank of England policy meeting positioning.
USDCAD drifted aimlessly in a narrow range. Price gains on US rate hike expectations are being slowed by rising oil prices and robust Canadian data. Friday, Canada’s Ivey PMI index jumped to 71.5 in April. It was 59.9 in March
WTI oil prices are underpinned by Venezuela production issues and fears the US will walk away from the Iran Nuclear deal. WTI climbed from $69.74 to $70.66/b.
There isn’t any US economic data due today but there are speeches from Fed members Kaplan and Evans. Traders will be keeping an eye on headlines about Iran sanctions but stay close to home
USDCAD Technical Outlook
USDCAD is in a minor uptrend above 1.2820 looking for a break of resistance in the 1.2920-50 area to extend gains to 1.3125. A break below 1.2820 targets 1.2750. for today, USDCAD support is at 1.2840, 1.2820 and 1.2790. Resistance is at 1.2880, 1.2920 and 1.2950.
Today’s Range 1.2840-1.2920