This is the first day of the FX week for many markets. The US dollar has recouped all of its post-NFP losses against EUR and JPY but still has a ways to go against CAD. The weak NFP report (Actual 126k vs. Forecast 245K) is being dismissed as a weather-influenced blip and nothing to sway the FOMC from their rate hike path.
AUDUSD was the big story in Asia. The RBA left rates unchanged, catching many traders by surprise and AUDUSD soared. The question is whether the RBA is merely delaying the inevitable until the next meeting or will it be a more protracted pause. The BoJ monetary policy meeting has started and is expected to be a non-event for FX. In Europe, traders ignored PMI data from the Eurozone, Germany and the UK.
The Canadian dollar traded in a narrow range ignoring chatter of oil price downside risks on Iran/China discussions and yesterday’s BoC Business Outlook survey. That changed in the early NY session will USDCAD buyers testing resistance at 1.2520, which has held. The lack of both US and Canadian data suggests further range trading today.
USDCAD technical outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.2440 with the break above 1.2470 suggesting further gains to 1.2550. A move below 1.2440 will lead to another test of support in the 1.2380-1.2410 area.
The short term 1.2350-1.2820 range since mid-January remains intact.
Today’s Range 1.2450-1.2520