The US dollar closed on Friday with small gains against the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars and finished flat against the rest of the G10 majors.  The greenback retreated modestly in a dull overnight session.  The Data cupboard in Asia and Europe was bare.

EURUSD has not reacted to news that Italy may have a Five Star/Northern League coalition government if Italian President Sergio Mattarella accepts their nomination for Premier.  If he rejects their choice, Reuters reports that new elections are likely.  EURUSD traded in a 1.1941-1.1989 range and opened at the top of the band.

GBPUSD continued to consolidate recent losses after bouncing from 1.3460. GBPUSD drifted higher in a 1.3543-1.3595 range but remains in a downtrend while prices are below 1.3720.

USDJPY has drifted higher, rising from 109.22 to 109.58, alongside an uptick in US 10-year Treasury 2.988%.  Failure to break above 109.60-65 will lead to a fresh test of 108.60 while a break to the top will lead to 110.00

AUDUSD and NZDUSD drifted in narrow bands.  Aussie traders were looking ahead to the RBA minutes release on Tuesday while Kiwi traders are concerned ahead of the first Labour/NZ First coalition budget.

USDCAD traded narrowly due to the lingering effects of the somewhat disappointing Canadian employment data on Friday.  Crappy weather at the beginning of April may have had an impact on the report. Oil prices are at elevated levels and should act as a drag against US dollar strength, if not provide some outright support to the Canadian dollar. Thursday is supposed to be the “drop-dead” day for a NAFTA deal in 2018.  After, that it will be too late for the 2018 Congress to evaluate and the 2019 Congress could have a different composition.  Arguably, news of a deal will drive USDCAD to 1.25000 while a failure would lead to 1.3000.

There isn’t any data due today.  Traders will focus on news of US/China trade talks, Wall Street and fall-out from the US quitting the Iran nuclear deal and the US Embassy move to Jerusalem

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.2795 which guards resistance at 1.2805, looking for a break below the 1.2730-50 area to extend losses to the 100-200 day moving averages at 1.2682 and 1.2643, repsectively.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2730 and 1.2710.  Resistance is at 1.2790 and 1.2810

Today’s Range 1.2730-1.2800