For those looking for insight from this mornings US employment report, it was inconclusive. US dollar bulls were disappointed because nonfarm payrolls only rose 164,000 and not the 192,000 predicted. US dollar bears were unhappy because the unemployment rate dipped to 3.9% from 4.1% last month. There was a brief flurry of activity but the bulls won the morning. The greenback is trading at session highs against the majors.
EURUSD did not get any help from economic reports. Markit Services and composite PMI data missed the mark and so did March Retail Sales. EURUSD traded lower, falling from 1.1994 to 1.1957 at the New York open.
Sterling tracked EURUSD moves lower. Weak data, bearish technicals and a dovish Bank of England continue to undermine the currency pair.
Japanese markets were closed again and USDJPY stayed in a 108.94-109.22 band. AUDUSD traders were active, buying the currency pair after the RBA Monetary Policy Report repeated an optimistic outlook for the economy tempered by below-target inflation. The move was reversed in Europe, and AUDUSD dropped from 0.7559 to 0.7513. NZDUSD traded lower tracking general US dollar moves
Oil prices were steady in a $68.15-$68.62 range. Fears of a supply disruption from fresh sanctions against Iran have overwhelmed concerns about rising US production and inventories.
USDCAD continues to bounce off both sides of the 1.2820-1.2920 trading band that has contained prices since April 23. USDCAD is supported by widening CAD/US interest rate differentials and broad US dollar strength against the major G10 currencies. The upside pressure is offset by: a), BoC Governor Poloz’s recent speech which was mildly hawkish. B) Oil prices are high. c) economic data has been strong, including this week’s February GDP report. d) fears NAFTA would collapse have eased.. The range will stay intact until a decisive break of 1.2950 or 1.2750 occurs.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
USDCAD continues its 1.2820-1.2920 dance while looking for a break above 1.2950 or below 1.2750 For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2820, 1.2790 and 1.2750. Resistance is at 1.2880 and 1.2920.
Today’s Range 1.2820-1.2920