USDCAD Overnight Range 1.3160-1.3290  

The US dollar screamed higher following a blow-out nonfarm payrolls report. NFP posted a whopping 271,000 gain in jobs, handily beating forecasts for a gain of 180,000.  Even better, Average Hourly Earnings rose 2.5%, y/y and the unemployment rate dropped to 5%. A December rate hike is definitely on the agenda.  As at the time of writing this report, EURUSD is the worst performing currency in the G-10, having dropped over 1.5%.   All the rest have shed at least 1% with the exception of the Canadian dollar.

The Canadian dollar is down 0.87%, so far this morning, but that is the best performance of a G-10 currency.  And that is thanks to a blow-out Canadian employment report.  Canada gained 44,000 jobs easily surpassing the forecast for a gain of 10,000. Unfortunately, the Canadian results took a back seat to the US data.

The Canadian jobs data is another stellar piece of economic data to add to this week’s better than expected trade report and okay Ivey PMI report that supports the view that Canada’s economy is rebounding with the gains south of the border. That may not be much of a USDCAD trading factor today but next week, when the euphoria of the US data fades to concerns over the strength of the US dollar, the Loonie may derive some benefit. That is, of course, if WTI prices don’t break below the $42.75/$43.00/barrel floor.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday and short term USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.3160 and 1.2960 respectively.  This morning’s top side break of the 1.3180-90 area and the subsequent break above 1.3280 (Oct. 27 high) opens the door to further gains with the 2015 peak of 1.3455, the target. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3240 and 1.3190.  Resistance is at 1.3290 and 1.3330.


Forecast Range for the day 1.3230-1.3310

Chart USDCAD daily

NOV6TH 2015