Picture: Wikimedia commons
November 4, 2020
- US election indecision roils markets
- Bank of England policy meeting on tap
- FX markets trade wildly overnight, open mixed compared to Tuesday
FX Ranges at a Glance Tuesday NY open to Wednesday NY 8:30 am ET
Source: IFXA Ltd/RP
FX Recap and Outlook American voters gave the finger to pollsters, again. The projected “Blue Wave” giving Democrats the Presidency, and control of both the Senate and House, became a “Magenta Splash.” President Trump told supporters in the wee hours of the morning today: “Frankly we did win this election.” The results as reported by Politico.com beg to differ
The US dollar rode an election roller coaster. There were plenty of ups and downs, with yesterday’s gains evaporating with polling results. FX markets opened in a mild risk-averse mood, as safe-haven currencies JPY and CHF opened higher compared to Tuesday’s NY open, while the commodity currency bloc is flat to negative.
EURUSD climbed in Asia, rising from 1.1721 to 1.1770 until US election results became available. Prices plunged to 1.1604 before gradually, and somewhat erratically trading higher, rising to 1.1744 in early NY trading. Euro-area Services and Composite PMI data were a tick better than forecast, but not anything to concern traders. Despite the election and overnight price action, EURUSD remains locked in its well-defined 1.1600-1.1800 range.
GBPUSD price action mirrored that of the single currency. It climbed to 1.3140 from the closing level of 1.3063, then dropped to 1.2916, before bouncing to 1.3050. in NY. The 0.0224 point price swing reflected both the election, Brexit, weaker than expected PMI data, and caution ahead of the upcoming Bank of England Monetary policy meeting. The BoE is expected to announce an increase in QE, accompanied by a very dovish outlook.
USDJPY rallied to 105.34 from its 104.50 close in early Asia trading, as speculation about a Biden victory lifted US 10-year Treasury yields from 0.90% to 0.94%. USDJPY sank to 104.16 as those same yields plummeted to 0.78%. USDJPY is trading just above its overnight low, and US-10 year Treasury yields are at 0.79%.
AUDUSD and NZDUSD were risk-sentiment barometers, rising and falling with Democrat sweep hopes.
USDCAD traded wildly in the past 13 hours, dropping to a low of 1.3098 in Asia, soaring to 1.3297 in early European trading, then falling to 1.3136 this morning. . For all the noise, the USDCAD technical look is unchanged, and the currency is rangebound.
There is a lot of US data today, including ADP Employment, Trade, and ISM Services PMI, but everyone’s attention will be on US vote counts.
USDCAD Technicals: The daily USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3360, looking for a break below 1.3090 to extend losses to 1.2950. The intraday technicals are messy but modestly bearish below 1.3270, looking for a break of minor support at 1.3160 to extend losses lower. Today’s Range 1.3140-1.3240
Chart: USDCAD daily
Source: Saxo Bank
FX open (6:00 am EDT) High, Low, and previous close
Source: Saxo Bank